Notes
Virtual or Physical Civil War?
In my timeline of doom and gloom, I put forward my theory that the recent divisions in societies around the world would push them into civil war. In particular, I (still) feel that Brexit will be the spark required to turn Europe against itself and I'm feeling even more confident that the United States will slip into civil war in the next decade.
A recent news article on BBC World has done nothing but solidify my feelings. Donald Trump’s appalling behaviour, too, is pulling the US deeper and deeper down that rabbit hole. It is not a good place to be. It is playing with fire. The question is whether the civil war being started now is going to stay virtual and played out online over Facebook and Twitter/Parler —as it is currently— or whether it will spill over into physical civil war?
All major wars are precluded by many skirmishes and localised battles that do nothing but solidify the divisions of all. Keeping an eye on what happens over the next couple of years, and particularly as this current pathetic administration in the US gives way to the new one, will give us an idea of where America wants to go.
Mark my words, this is not going in a peaceful direction.
18 November 2020 — French West Indies
Software is indeed, eating the world
When Marc Andreessen famously wrote that software is eating the world, it was seen as both a love letter to the tech industry and an alarm of the consequences of a fundamental shift in the way the world will work. I’m not writing about the latter part here, I’ll leave that to those better placed and more inclined. But the first part I find fascinating.
I’m looking to replace an ageing iMac from 2014 that neither has a fast processor or an integrated SSD, making my computing experience less than optimal compared to today’s offerings. The promise of a radically faster next iMac around the corner, and something that the release of Apple’s in-house designed M1 means that I’m unlikely to replace my computer until the iMac line is replaced by this new line. For the moment, only the low-end has been introduced by Apple. The fact that this low-end is promising to be faster than the current high-end is absolutely unprecedented.
But this is hardware, and whilst hardware has the possibility to enhance your computing experience —and to be fair, enable new computing experiences—, it is software that affords the complete reinvention.
My old iMac has been completely transformed by the installation of a new operating system. Big Sur, released last Thursday the 12th November 2020, has converted by computer into a completely new computing affair. I’m spending more time at the computer because I like it more. I’m spending more time at the computer because it is more conducive to work. And I'm spending more time at my computer because I can’t wait to see what the M1 will bring to this equation.
Without diminishing the thousands and thousands of man-hours, innovation and inventiveness that goes into developing an operating system, we’re talking about a (long) string of 1s and 0s. A string that changes everything about the way one interacts and uses the technology in front of us.
There is nothing like this in the world. It's akin to removing all the acquired knowledge, feelings, experiences and genetic information stored in your brain, re-writing it to be arguably better, and then re-injecting it to produce a completely new human.
I’ll let that sink in for a few moments.
15 November 2020 — French West Indies
Election Day USA
Never have I had any misgivings about the authenticity and verity of an election.
For more than forty years I have been nothing but a believer of the fact that the USA elections were nothing but fair and a true representation of the will of the people. That they were conducted with the utmost honesty. And whilst there were contentions and questions surrounding counts, it was done with dignity and a genuine will to serve the American people. Yes, even the famous hanging chads incident in Florida in 2000.
It’s 2020, and that has all come crashing down. All because of one single sociopath that knows no limits, has no self-control or decency, to get what “he” wants. Be damned with anyone else.
This will end badly for you, my friends in the USA. Either way this election will be seen as the starting point of America's second civil war. A war that will not take the form of the first, but a war nonetheless.
3 November 2020 — French West Indies
2020 Tropical Cyclone Season. Nearly over, but not quite.
A truly breathtaking season that thankfully resulted in few storms directly hitting us here in the Caribbean. The US, particularly Louisiana, didn’t have such fortune, with Laura, Marco, Sally and Delta all affecting the state. An overly busy season appeared as predicted, with (so far) 29 depressions, 28 named storms, 12 hurricanes (Category 1 and 2) and 4 major hurricanes (Categories 3+).
Each year the NOAA and other meteorological institutions around the world predict the season ahead using a scale called the ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy index. After studying reliable data from 1981 to 2010, a team in Colorado State University, and independently the NOAA, derived a scale to measure and help predict tropical cyclone intensities for each season. They arrived at an average of 12.1 storms with 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes. This is enabled the development of the indicator, the ACE, and set a value of 106 for an average season.
The 2020 season is currently at 143 and it is not over yet.
Bear in mind that in 1954 Hurricane Alice formed on 30 December in the mid-Atlantic to the north-east of the Leeward Islands, traveling south-west directly impacting these islands with maximum winds reaching 90+ mph, around 150 kph.
Stay vigilant.
Image: [upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia...](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/1f4a7932cbee5dcb8c94b0df46fc7f48.png)
2 November 2020 — French West Indies
After the first real TW, comes the first real TS
Genuinely a worrying image to see when you live in the Caribbean. For the best sources to follow and to learn about how these predictions are done, the NHC NOAA website is key, but my preference is for Tropical Tidbits. His nightly (during current storms) presentations on his YouTube channel are second to none. Easy to understand, easy to get the key messages and removed from drama to prevent panic, something the world’s TV channels would do well to emulate.
22 July 2020 — French West Indies
The first (real) Tropical Wave of the season
As many of you will know, I live in the Caribbean. And apart from its idyllic setting sometimes, we do have 3 major potential natural disasters to cope with; Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Hurricanes.
The 1st of June debuts the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which lasts until the end of November. The early part of the season is relatively quiet for us in the Caribbean as most storm-potential depressions tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, way past our islands. Their movement tends to be NE, threatening Cuba, and Florida mostly. That’s not a perfect explanation, but you get the idea.
Further on in the season the Cape Verde tropical waves begin to get more and more active. Caribbean Hurricanes are Cape Verde hurricanes, and take their name from the waves that come off the coast of Africa, head west and using the earth’s rotation spin up to become hurricanes.
Today is the 7th July, and we’re currently under a tropical wave that is producing a little thunder and rain. It’s a wake up call to all us here in the Caribbean that the season is now underway. Now is the time to start planning and preparing. Every Island has advice on what to do, how to do it. Take that advice. It’s free.
From a rainy and thundery Windward Islands.
7 July 2020 — French West Indies
These companies constantly prostitute the notion of the First Amendment
From Fast Company’s interview with Scott Galloway:
Fast Company: What do you think about Mark Zuckerberg’s relationship with Donald Trump?
Scott Galloway: Everyone kind of figured out that Mark Zuckerberg is the biggest oligarch in the history of mankind, and that he is leveraging his proximity to power in corrupt ways just to increase his wealth. And I think the Trump-Zuckerberg story is going to have a big impact on the way political speech happens on social networks.
These companies constantly prostitute the notion of the First Amendment. And whenever they say First Amendment, what they really mean is they want to pretend that they shouldn’t be the arbiters of truth, such that they can let their supernova business models run unfettered. This has nothing to do with the First Amendment. They are private companies; they are not obligated to the First Amendment. There is nothing in any of their backgrounds that shows any reverence or respect for free speech.
I’m still of the opinion that to work for Facebook is to put your morals “on hold”. Read the whole article to get a better picture.
5 July 2020 — French West Indies
My timeline of doom and gloom. Here’s hoping I’m wrong!
I wrote in one of my recent newsletters that I had started to form a bigger picture of the events that are happening around the world currently. I thought I’d have a crack at trying to articulate this feeling. It’s not very positive as I don’t feel the future is that positive in the short-to-medium term. Long-term, I think things will right themselves after a wave of unrest and a reset as we all collectively wake up. Then the cycle will start over again.
Here’s a timeline of the events that started me down this track. For the record, I know other events happened earlier than this timeline, which I why I say the events that started me down this.
Brexit: The collective undoing of a stable —although not by any means perfect— relationship with Europe is, in my mind, a short-sighted and ultimately destructive path for the UK. Both sides will lose out, but I think my native UK will come out worse. But to be honest, that doesn’t really matter, as the UK will find a way to be OK. What really worries me is how this plays into the next step on this timeline?
Political and social division: If anything, this is one of the core parts to creating the necessary climate to feed and grow Brexit. Europe is the big monster to blame for all ills, while in front of our faces political and social groups are profiting from the division in society. Take the US as an example of extremes. There seems to be no middle ground any more. It wasn’t like this before, and it doesn’t have to be this way, but society is walking blindly into the guet-apens.
Social media: I'll not blame anyone social media firm in particular because, in reality, they are all willing participants in a destabilising social experiment. They just haven’t admitted it yet. The cognitive dissonance for me and others is that these platforms do lots of good and being digital hence agnostic, they simultaneously do lots of harm. Does the good outweigh the harm? I don’t think so currently.
Covid-19: It couldn’t have come at a better time to anchor and entrench people in their bubbles. Not only did lockdown give many people a lot more time to go down their own rabbit holes even further, but the fact that the virus exists gave some the power to develop or extend existing conspiracies to an extent never seen before. We’ve seen burins of cell towers, potentially putting people’s lives at risk, large protests against mask-wearing and the whole situation was just manna for QAnon.
Civil war: I think the next logical step in this increasingly divided state of affairs is nothing short of civil war. After Brexit, I was convinced that Europe would be first to spill into civil war, and I’m not fully convinced yet it won’t. Legitimising nationalism (which is what essentially Brexit is) I felt, was to legitimise nationalism in Europe, ergo civil war in Europe. However, the recent instability in the US has got me thinking that there is a real risk of the US tipping into civil war before Europe. The US is on a collision course with itself like it has not been since 1861.
World war: If either Europe or the US bascule into civil war, it is only a matter of time for the other to do the same. We’re too intrinsically linked on a social level not to follow suit. We know that will only lead to world war, and we know this to be so, just look at the central purpose of the European Union:
The precursor to the European Union was established after World War II in the late 1940s in an effort to unite the countries of Europe and end the period of wars between neighboring countries.
This extract is from this article at ThoughtCo.
There is a ray of hope, however. The #BlackLivesMatter movement offers us a glimpse into a better future. One where we are conscient and empathic to one and other. According to some figures, 62% of the US population agrees with the movement, with 76% of those surveyed in a Monmouth University poll stating that racism and discrimination is a “big problem”.
I fear for the future, as I’m predisposed to do so, but I’m hopeful that I’m wrong. Thank you for reading. Please get in touch through Twitter @virek.
4 July 2020 — French West Indies
More on Studio Neat’s Canopy
I wrote about my love for the Studio Neat Canopy here. Literally, the only thing it lacks compared to the new iPad magic Keyboard is the different viewing angles. It’s virtually perfect for me.
One thing I omitted to mention is that when you have your iPad in portrait mode, there’s enough space on the side to sit an iPhone, giving you the ability to have an extremely portable two-screen setup. It’s not an extended desktop or screen-sharing, of course. However, if you use Continuity, as I do, copying and pasting between devices is simple and fast.
This ultra-portable and ultra-productive setup is my goto configuration for the time being.
27 April 2020 — French West Indies
GatesNotes : The first modern pandemic
A thoughtful and interesting must-read, worth all of the twenty or so minutes it’ll take you to read it in detail. Take your time and ingest. It’s packed with sensible and researched information.
Opening up
Most developed countries will be moving into the second phase of the epidemic in the next two months. In one sense, it is easy to describe this next phase. It is semi-normal. People can go out, but not as often, and not to crowded places. Picture restaurants that only seat people at every other table, and airplanes where every middle seat is empty. Schools are open, but you can’t fill a stadium with 70,000 people. People are working some and spending some of their earnings, but not as much as they were before the pandemic. In short, times are abnormal but not as abnormal as during the first phase.
24 April 2020 — French West Indies
NoNaBloPoMo
My self-inflicted pressure to write a blog post per day for the month of November didn’t quite go as well as I’d hoped. It did, however, confirm something. And that’s fine.
As a writer and blogger I think we tend to put everyone in the same basket. A writer will write and therefore whatever style of writing is possible he or she is capable of writing. Bloggers blog and blogging is a form that everyone understands and adheres to.
Not so. I write, but I’m not a novelist and I don’t know how to write daily blog posts on my observations in the day. I tried and I can’t do either of them.
What I can write, is long reports, long articles explaining the historical context of a subject and informed analysis pieces that demand lots of research.
I think I’ll stick to what I know best. I’m just not ready or capable of opening up my life as a constant stream of blurb on the Internet.
10 December 2019 — French West Indies
Depends where you look
Although I haven’t been as active as I’d hoped, I’ve not been lazy. Quite the opposite in fact. I’ve written and published over 2000 words this week on my newsletter and written something like 7000 or so on a research report for a client.
Depends where you look.
19 November 2019 — French West Indies
Ouch, 4 days!
Dear oh dear! 4 days without an update despite me promising myself and anyone who read this, that I would update daily.
It’s actually quite a hard challenge for someone like me who is actually fairly private and doesn’t share too much of his life, even in the real world. But the idea was to provoke writing, and writing about anything. Perhaps even helping develop some creativity.
I’m still waiting for the creative juices to start flowing 😢
19 November 2019 — French West Indies
Clean Shoes
I love having clean, freshly polished shoes. It just shows the commitment and effort required to look after objects.
I just wish I had more time to give them the attention they deserve.
15 November 2019 — French West Indies
Social Sewage
I originally published this nearly a year ago. I still think it holds up and is relevant today, if not more so.
From The Rise of Populism Is Hurting Journalism : Monday Note
Just subscribe to some Facebook groups supporting various populist factions and you’ll be appalled by the mixture of fake news and putrid ideologies, in which the claim for a more equitable society is practically anecdotal. Facebook has become the dumpster of free expression with a significant casualty: facts.
The whole article is depressing reading but worth reading, particularly if you are trying to unravel and understand just what is happening at the moment. It has suddenly — it at least appears that way to me — become more complicated and difficult to understand just what, who, how and why. Just look at the train wreck that is Brexit, none of the existing rules apply when reporting, discussion and debating the subject.
The consequences are extremely frightening, but I’m trying to avoid attributing causation. We can’t tell for the moment if this media sidelining (to put it mildly) is a symptom or one of the causes.
I took a conscious decision a couple of years ago to wind down my binge reading through Twitter and read more long form, either in the guise of newspapers/magazines or online publications (like the referenced Monday Note), and I can tell you quite simply, a considered and delayed point of view is almost always better. Real-time news is just that — a live stream of information, mis-information, supposition, cack-handed analysis that eventually leads to a better understanding. But do we need to see the insides and risk wrongly informing people whom are predisposed to not make to the end (TL;DR) ?
14 November 2019 — French West Indies
An enjoyable experience without the BS
I like photos and photography in a casual way. I’d love ot be a better photographer but I’m not sure I have the energy or the time to put in the required work to get there.
For now I’m content to take a nice photo now and again, but more importantly, to marvel at the wonderful photos being shard online by very talented artists.
A natural fit, you would think, for me to get an Instagram account. I had one once, when they were independent, but closed it the same day of the Facebook take-over. I’m glad I did. But I missed scrolling through others’ photos, be them filtered to death or badly composed, there was something quite personable about them, and that’s what I enjoyed.
Instagram today, is just a cesspool of hatred, sneering, judgement and worst of all, ‘influencers’. Not to mention the crossing-the-creepy-line of advertising that doesn’t in any way, share or form bring value to the experience.
Recently, I’ve gone back to browsing some of the fantastic work being shared on photography platforms. My favourite for grazing is 500px. It’s better than the Instagram experience and it comes without all the BS. You should give it a try, you might find that you’re better off for it.
13 November 2019 — French West Indies
My Apple Watch Series 5 quick take
I treated myself to a new Aluminium (Space Grey) Apple Watch Series 5 a couple of days ago. I’ve been wearing it all the time, just like my just-replaced Series 2.
I as early on the Apple Watch train, seeing immediately the usefulness, but I have been frustrated by the usage and of the lack of watch faces. Series 5 changes nearly all of this.
Always-On screen is a real bonus and when it was announced earlier in the year I actually said, “Shut up and take my money” to the screen! The new faces are much better and are going in the right direction, but I ‘d like to see more options, complications and more styles. After 5 years of Apple Watch I think Apple could make more of an effort to add hands that are not a direct rip off of the Patek Philippe Nautilus. I’d say its and opportunity for Apple to add to its Apple Watch Store.
I bought it with the Nike Sport Loop, and hence the Nike+ Apple Watch, for one reason only. Nike’s Sport Loop is the only one in black. I don’t use the Nike faces no run club so the Nike branding is irrelevant to me.
I thought I’d like the Sport Loop a lot as I walk, run and cycle regularly. But I find it annoying to put on and take off. It’s just a bit too fiddly to poke your hand through the loop, it needs stretching sometimes for me — big hands? — and I find this uncomfortable. I really like It once it’s on, as it is way softer than I thought it would be. I’d never actually touched one before. Where I live we don’t have an Apple Store so getting to see this stuff is quite difficult.
Lastly, the usefulness seems to have exceeded my expectations. Things are just that much more fluid and therefore useful. I pared down the interactions on the previous watch to only necessary apps and complications as the load time was intolerable at times, but with the 5 I think I’m going to add more and more (slowly) and then use more of the watch for operations that would hitherto make me reach for my phone.
I’m really enjoying it so far.
12 November 2019 — French West Indies
Happy Armistice Day
I hope you had as peaceful a day as I did.
/sarcasm
11 November 2019 — French West Indies
8 letter word. Abdicate.
From an interview between Manoush Zomorodi (Note to Self Podcast) and David Hohusen (creator of Two Dots) in Manoush’s book Bored and Briliant.
I like to think that users are smart enough that when they realize they’ve been tricked into a game with too many push notifications or other sleazy tactics, they will delete it.
Whenever anyone says “I like to think people are smart and can figure it out for themselves” they are totally abdicating their responsibility. Given the evidence in numerous scientific studies, it is clear that most people are incapable of resisting the temptations cynically preyed upon by these applications and aggregators.
6 November 2019 — French West Indies
Birmingham, UK had one of the most vibrant record shop scenes in the country
During the 70s and 80s, Birmingham became a Mecca for record stores. You could find almost anything, and what you couldn't find someone could import it for you,
This list of 30 stores in the city brings me find memories of how I used to take the bus every Saturday from my town to Birmingham, for £3.50 return:
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/nostalgia/nostalgia-30-birmingham-record-shops-7607715
I'd leave on an early bus, the take the last bus home, spending all day at my favourite store that is strangely not on this list — Don Christie’s. It was THE place to get the best Dub, Reggae and Hip Hop imports of the time.
The base was so loud, the shop windows vibrated almost to breaking point. Warnings were posted to ensure you closed the door when entering the store. What great times I had.
5 November 2019 — French West Indies